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Avaron Äripäevas: arenev Euroopa pakub ostukohti

Avaroni juhtivpartner Kristel Kivinurm-Priisalmi sõnul on areneva Euroopa piirkonnas ostukohad, meie suurimaks riigiks fondis on tõusnud Kreeka.

 

Loe artiklit Äripäevast: https://www.aripaev.ee/borsiuudised/2022/05/18/soda-lukkas-ida-euroopa-aktsiad-teenimatult-mutta-ja-see-pakub-haid-ostukohti

Kui Sul Äripäeva tellimust ei ole, saad Avaroni osa artiklist lugeda siit.

Üllatuslikult on Euroopa arenevate turgude kukkumine olnud pehmem

Kõige suurem üllatus on, et areneva Euroopa regiooni aktsiaturud on sel aastal kukkunud samas suurusjärgus nagu Euroopa aktsiaturud ja globaalsed arenevad turud. Meie ootus oli, et investorid pagevad peale sõja algust, aga üllatus oli, et peale esmast ehmatust on turgude tootlus sarnane.

Miks nii on läinud, on selgitatav mitmeti. Esiteks ei ole siia regiooni tulnud nii palju spekulatiivset kapitali võrreldes teiste turgudega, mis tähendab, et allamüügil pole ka nii palju ärajooksjaid. Lisaks kauplesid areneva Euroopa turud juba enne sõda oluliselt madalamal tasemel võrreldes Euroopa, globaalsete arenevate turgude ja globaalsete turgudega.

Kolmandaks põhjuseks on see, et viimastel aastatel on areneva Euroopa turgudel kasvanud oluliselt kohalike investorite osakaal ning kohalikud investorid ei läinud pärast sõja algust paanikasse, vaid võtavad pika vaate, sest tunnevad hästi ettevõtteid, nende ärimudeleid ja juhtkondi.


Euroopa arenevate turgude regioon kaupleb oluliselt madalamal hinnatasemel, aga pakub palju kõrgemat dividenditootlust

Euroopa arenevatel turgudel võib leida häid võimalusi

Euroopa arenevate turgude regioon kaupleb oluliselt madalamal hinnatasemel ning sellest tulenevalt on ka dividenditootlused oluliselt paremad võrreldes Euroopa või teiste globaalsete turgudega.

Meie hinnangul on areneva Euroopa turud täna investorite jaoks atraktiivsed, sest aktsiate hinnatase on soodne, eriti arvestades, et aktsiad kauplevad 30-50% allahindlusega Euroopa ja arenevate turgude suhtes. Avaron Areneva Euroopa Fondi portfellis on regiooniti tõusnud kõige suuremaks riigiks aga Kreeka, kus paikneb 18% fondi varadest. Kreekale järgnevad Poola (17% varadest) ja Ungari (16%).

Investorid müüsid sõja alguses valimatult Venemaal või Ukrainas kliente, vara või tütarfirmasid omavate firmade aktsiaid. Nii kukkusid nende ettevõtete aktsiahinnad kolinal, langedes rohkem kui oli nende varade väärtus või kasumi suurus Venemaalt või Ukrainast. Meie regioonis on heaks näiteks Ungaris noteeritud OTP pank, mille Venemaa ja Ukraina ärid on ligi 7% varadest ning toovad koju 15% ettevõtte kasumist. Aktsiahind kukkus ligi 35%, mis meie hinnangul oli selgelt ülereageering ning kasutasime allamüüki ostukohana.

Kreeka osakaal on Avaroni portfellis nii suur, kuna sealne majandus on märkimisväärselt parandanud konkurentsivõimet pärast kriisijärgseid struktuurseid reforme. Lisaks on majandussidemed sõjalises konfliktis olevate Venemaa ja Ukrainaga tagasihoidlikud: alla 3% ekspordist ja 5% impordist on seotud Venemaaga. Samuti on Kreekal tugev majanduskasvu väljavaade ning erinevates sektorites tegutsevad mitmed väga hästi juhitud ettevõtted, millest enamik on regionaalsed ja ekspordile suunatud.

Praeguseks on need investorid, kes kardavad, et NATO vihmavari konflikti korral ei avane, siit regioonist juba jooksu pannud. Uus raha, mis soovib piirkonda pääseda, on praegu ootel, et jälgida arenguid Venemaa-Ukraina sõjas. Rahalaevad tulevad piirkonda pärast seda, kui Ukrainas aktiivne pommitamine lõpeb või konflikt leiab muul moel lahenduse.

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