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Avaron ERR-is: intresside tõus on aasta hilinenud

Intresside tõus on aasta hilinenud
Avaroni investeeringute juht Peter Priisalm andis eile intervjuu Aktuaalses Kaameras ja selgitas, et Euroopa Keskpanga samm tõsta intresse on pea aasta hiljaks jäänud.

Nimelt ületas inflatsioon eurotsoonis kahe protsendi piiri eelmise aasta juulis ning nüüd aasta hiljem teeb Keskpank esimese sammu, et tõsta intressitaset eurotsoonis. Teistes Euroopa riikides, nagu Poola ja Tšehhi, kus ei kasutata eurot, tõstsid kohalikud keskpangad juba eelmise aasta sügisest inflatsiooni kasvades intressimäärasid, mis on aastaga kasvanud viis-kuus protsendipunkti. Seega, Euroopa Keskpanga samm on tõsiselt hiljaks jäänud.

Keskpank Euroopas on kümme aastat üritanud vältida deflatsiooni tekkimist ja ei tahtnud eksida sellega, et olla liiga karm liiga vara. Kuna inflatsioon on nii kõrge täna, siis see hakkab ise juba tarbimist ohjeldama ja teeb seda rohkem kui ühe või 1,5-protsendiline intressitõus.

Eraisikuid ja firmasid mõjutab intressitõus selle kaudu, et laenud muutuvad kallimaks: 100 000-eurose laenu puhul tuleb aastas tuhat eurot rohkem maksta. Seega lähevad kulutused laenu teenindamisele üles. Samas inimesed, kellel on pangas hoiused, neil on lootust, et läbi intresside tõusu pangad pakuvad kõrgemat deposiidiintressi. Seega, intresside tõusu mõju sõltub eelkõige sellest, kummal pool lauda istuda – kas sul on laen või raha.

Arvame, et sügiseks on majandus nii palju jahtunud, et Euroopa Keskpangal on raske intressimäärasid järsult tõsta. Kui Keskpank aastal 2011 intresse tõstis, siis kestis see intressitõus ainult viis kuud. Samas, kuna majanduse väljavaade on hetkel segane, peab olema valmis erinevateks stsenaariumiteks.

Inflatsioon on täna kõrge ja Euroopa Keskpank tõstab intressimäärasid, lisaks on Ida-Euroopa seoses Venemaa sõjaga Ukrainas kõrgema riski piirkond ja investorid ei soovi siia piirkonda oma panuseid teha. Kõrgem risk omakorda tähendab, et rahapakkumine on väiksem ja ettevõtteid ostetakse vähem. Seega peaks ühe stsenaariumina arvestama ka, et majandus võib langeda. Samas me ei näe, et 2008. aasta majanduskriis oleks kordumas. Nimelt aastal 2008 oli korterite ülepakkumine ja kui nõudlus ära kukkus, siis see oli krahh. Täna on meil elamispindadest pigem puudus. Et näha tõsist kukkumist kinnisvaraturul, peaks midagi struktuurset muutuma, näiteks sõda lõppeb ja ukrainlased naasevad kodumaale.

Loe Avaroni investeeringute juhi kommentaare ERRi artiklis:
https://www.err.ee/1608625117/euroopa-keskpank-tostab-juulis-intressimaarasid
Ja vaata Aktuaalsest Kaamerast alates 3:50:
https://jupiter.err.ee/1608610402/aktuaalne-kaamera-ilm

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